Understanding Expected Goals (xG) in Soccer Analysis

Expected Goals (xG) has become one of the most important metrics in modern soccer analysis. It provides a more accurate assessment of team performance than traditional statistics like shots on target. This article explains what xG is, how it's calculated, and how you can use it to make smarter betting decisions.

What is Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot by calculating the probability of it resulting in a goal. The xG value of a shot is determined by various factors, including:

• Shot Location: Shots taken closer to the goal have a higher xG.
• Angle to Goal: Shots from a central position are more likely to be scored.
• Body Part: Headers are generally less likely to be scored than shots with the feet.
• Type of Assist: A through ball that puts a player one-on-one with the goalkeeper will lead to a high xG chance.

How to Use xG in Betting Analysis

xG can be a powerful tool for identifying betting value:

• Team Performance vs. Results: If a team is consistently creating high-quality chances (high xG) but failing to score, they might be a good bet to score in future matches.
• Identifying Overperforming and Underperforming Teams: Teams that are scoring significantly more goals than their xG suggests may be due for a regression to the mean.
• Assessing Defensive Strength: A team that consistently concedes a low number of high-quality chances (low xGA) is likely to have a strong defense.

Conclusion

Expected Goals (xG) is a game-changing metric that provides a deeper understanding of soccer matches. By incorporating xG into your analysis, you can move beyond simple results and gain a more accurate picture of team performance, ultimately leading to more informed and profitable betting decisions.